CHAPTER 3: ENVIRONMENTAL SCAMS

In order to impose on the world their dogmas and restrictions, the Environmental Movement has abandoned rational discussion, scientific method  and  open debate and adopted the principle that the ends justify the means. Distortion and fabrication of evidence has become routine, and is a feature of our news bulletins, scientific journals, schools and university departments. Sceptics are deniers, hounded from employment and publishable only on the Internet. Exaggeration, partial evidence, speculation and unjustified assumptions are compounded, often with the help of computers, to provide scare scenarios for the future. A useful summary is available at Environmental False Alarms¹  

The following are examples:

NUCLEAR WINTER

This idea from the early 1980s arose from the popularity of computer models and was promoted by the physicist Carl Sagan². It was claimed that a serious nuclear war would not only cause many deaths and a disruption of human existence but would cause so much soot and other aerosols in the atmosphere that all plant life on earth would die.

The use of nuclear weapons would undoubtedly cause considerable harm. Since some 93% of them are in the arsenals of Russia and the USA the priority is avoiding a war between them, something which we hope has become increasingly remote. Why do we have to be persuaded that even nuclear bombing of modern towns, largely built from concrete and steel, would contribute the vast amounts of smoke required for this theory?

At the time this theory was put forward I was a member of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. I joined it after I saw a television interview with Clement Attlee who had been the British Prime Minister who authorised to dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, where he admitted that he was unaware that these bombs had a problem with radioactivity. I and my family walked to and from Aldermaston. The campaign succeeded in publicizing the true horror of these bombs and played a part in what we all hope will be their final elimination. The nuclear war scam was a deliberate diversion from this aim.

Sagan was so convinced by his theory that he expected that the fires in the Kuwait oilfields would provide a nuclear winter. But he got it wrong.  Some who think that Beijing air pollution could be disastrous are unaware that similar problems of air pollution in Britain and elsewhere have been successfully solved without a possible nuclear winter. When I lived in Manchester in 1951 I recall a pea soup fog where I could not see an illuminated street lamp when standing below it. I was a member of the Clean Air Society at the time. This Society was dissolved when a policy of clean air was adopted by most local bodies, despite occasional lapses.

SILENT SPRING

Silent Spring³ by biologist/zoologist Rachel Carson warned of the dangers that DDT allegedly posed to all manner of plant, animal, and human life. These threats were so great, said Carson, that on balance they more than negated whatever benefits were to be gained from using the pesticide to prevent malaria.

Carson claimed that the presence of DDT and its metabolites, DDE (Dichloro-Diphenyldichloro-Ethylene) and DDD (Dichloro-Diphenyl-Dichloroethane), caused the shells of bird eggs to become thinner, thereby leading to an increased incidence of egg breakage and/or embryo death. This, Carson postulated, would severely interfere with bird reproduction and ultimately would lead to a silent spring bereft of the familiar sounds of birdsongs.

She also stated that the overall rise in U.S. cancer rates between 1940 (the dawn of the DDT era) and 1960 proved that DDT was a carcinogen. She predicted that DDT and other pesticides would spark a cancer epidemic that would wipe out practically 100 percent of the human population.

After seven months of hearings in 1971 by the US Environment Protection Agency, which produced 125 witnesses and 9,362 pages of testimony, EPA Judge Edmund Sweeney concluded that according to the evidence:

DDT is not a carcinogenic hazard to man  It is not a mutagenic or teratogenic hazard to man ... [and the] use of DDT under the regulations involved here do not have a deleterious effect on freshwater fish, estuarine organisms, wild birds or other wildlife.

The banning of the use of DDT has caused great harm to their precious environment because supposedly organic agriculture campaigns against improved genetically engineered crops which use less land. The production of biofuels also require extra land, which has to come from  clearing native reserves, with harm to the native birds. The cost of food is increased and so world poverty.

The withdrawal of DDT is thought to have caused the deaths of an extra 50 million victims of malaria.

In September 2006 the World Health Organisation (WHO) announced that it would henceforth actively supportindoor spraying of the chemical as a prevention of malaria

 not only in epidemic areas but also in areas with constant and high malaria transmission, including throughout Africa. The scientific and programmatic evidence clearly supports this reassessment.

 Dr Anarfi Asamoa-Baah, WHO assistant director-general for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. said:

 DDT presents no health risk when used properly.

The WHO issued a statement asserting that

DDT provides the most effective, cheapest, and safest means of abating and eradicating infectious diseases like malaria and typhus, which may have killed half of all the people that ever lived.

The following table lists the consequences of this decision.

It shows that18 countries are now either making use of DDT or planning to do so.

Table 1. Annual global production and use of DDT (10³ kg a. i.)
in 2003,2005 and 2007. "n.a." denotes data not available.

WORLD DYNAMICS AND LIMITS TO GROWTH

The United Nations conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm in June 1972 , was dominated by the sensation that had been caused by the publication of two books, World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester⁶  and Limits to Growth  by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jφrgen Randers and William W. Behrens III.⁷

Forrester was a systems-dynamics analyst and  Professor of Management at the Alfred P. Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He devised an early computer model intended to simulate the world responses to environmental change. 

Figure 3.1. Feedback Loops⁷ 

His parameters were population, resources, pollution, capital and agriculture. Fig 3.1 shows the multitude of feedback loops, from which he derived his World 2 model.

His book actually lists all the equations he used, taking up only two pages, a modest list by today's standards. Fig 2 shows the main predictions of the standard run of his model, where decline is caused by depletion of resources. Steadily increasing resource costs inhibit industrial growth. This has the effect of lowering standards and causing population to decline. Pollution plays no part here, unless the resource or capital declines are inoperative. Note that the population decline is scheduled from 2020, and the quality of life declines from 1950.

The trick is to ignore the lessons of history, which show how human progress is dependent on human ingenuity. If this disappears disaster obviously follows.   

Figure 3. 2. World Forecasts⁷

Cole et al⁸in their critique of “Limits to Growth” have shown how this is done

 

THE POPULATION BOMB

Paul R Erlich⁹ The Population Bomb  and  The Population Explosion¹⁰  (with Ann H  Erlich) has publicised the belief that the world’s population is too large and is exceeding its resources.

Malthus claimed¹¹ that, if unrestrained, population will increase exponentially. But all organisms are restrained by the struggles of evolution with other organisms.  Population of any organism depends on success in finding food, coping with predators, and ingenuity in expanding territory. Human population increase is closely related to success in all of these factors. If we avoid the advice of the above authors there is no reason why this should not continue.

Much is made of the current increases in human population but little attention is paid to its lack of uniformity.

 

Figure 3. 3  Fertility rates in different countries¹²

The above map shows that fertility rates (the expected number of children born per woman in her child-bearing years.)

The fertility rates in most developed countries are currently below the level needed to replace the present population. In undeveloped countries, particularly most of Central Africa and a part of India, fertility rates are above the ability of the local economy to provide support for them.

Population programmes depend on the locality. They need to concentrate on encouragement for childbearing in advanced countries but for Central Africa and part of India there is a need for contraceptive advice, empowerment of women, and industrial development.

The United Nations population Fund¹³ has recently released a detailed forecast of population changes until 2300 which bear little relationship to the beliefs of Erlich and his associates.

DEPLETION OF RESOURCES

Ehrlich and others believe the Earth's resources are becoming scarcer. Expanding population uses them at an increased rate. Therefore he predicts that the  prices of these resources should increase.

 In 1980 Julian L Simon offered Ehrlich a bet¹⁴. Ehrlich could choose any five raw materials he wanted. Simon sold Ehrlich an option to buy an amount of each raw material worth $200 in 1980 dollars. If the prices increased over the next ten years, Simon would pay Ehrlich; however, if the prices decreased over the same time period, Ehrlich would have to pay Simon.

Ehrlich chose five metals: copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten. The bet was on. Ten years later, after adjusting for inflation, just as predicted, the prices of all five metals went down. Ehrlich had lost. He sent Simon a check and nothing else. Simon offered to bet again and up the ante to $20,000; Ehrlich declined.

Wikipedia and all the others try to argue that Simon was lucky. He may have been less successful if he had chosen a different time period or set of commodities. But he did not and succeeded in deflating Erlich’s pretensions.

Fortunately the real world constantly changes. What constitutes resources also changes, related to the requirements of society, and its ingenuity in meeting them.

Let us take an example from energy resources, which are so often claimed to be depleted.

The following figures are from the BP Statistical  Review of World Energy 2013¹⁵

They  show how the proved resources of various forms of energy have changed. 

ANTI FRACKING

Figure 3.4. World fracking sites¹⁶

Environmentalists are the modern Luddites. Any change in manufacture or technology can be construed to harm the environment, particularly extractive industries. Coal and oil should never have been discovered.

Fracking¹⁵ is a technique for recovery of oil and gas from oil bearing strata by its controlled damage. It has recently been improved by pumping water containing small plastic balls which can hold fissures open. It has been embraced by the United States on a grand scale, despite the supposed environmentalist support. The USA has suddenly changed from an impoverished nation dependent on oilfrom the  Middle East to the largest oil and gas producer in the world.

Environmentalists in other nations have largely succeeded in proventing this path to prosperity in many countries. The result has been an enormous difference in price for natural gas, greatly to the disadvantage of Europe¹⁷.

Figure 3.5 Comparative gas prices¹⁷.

GENETIC ENGINEERING

Genetic engineering is the process whereby humans have selected plant varieties to provide food and utility. It has been the work of all generations and it has been the main reason why human beings have increased in numbers and prosperity. Of course, our forefathers did not know the mechanisms which enabled their success. They knew nothing  of genes or the mechanism of heredity. It is only after the discovery of the nature of genes and the chemistry of heredity that it has been possible to carry out the procedures of improving plant utility by using scientific knowledge.

But again, environmentalists are against it and are therefore preventing improvements in agriculture on the grounds that it damages the environment or is unsafe. Yet  these limitations were always present and it did not prevent our forefathers from providing the food we have today. Potential problems always existed and we should be grateful that plant and animal experiments in the past were not forbidden, Today we have the advantage of background knowledge.

The use of modern techniques for modifying genes instead of the dependence on selection of favourable varieties is said to be artificial. Selection without background knowledge is supposedly naturaland therefore in some way superior.

In 2013¹⁸, GM crops were planted in 27 countries; 19 were developing countries and 8 were developed countries. 2013 was the second year in which developing countries grew a majority (54%) of the total GM harvest. 18 million farmers grew GM crops; around 90% were small-holding farmers in developing countries. The supposed defects of the technique have never become evident.

ACID RAIN

Acid rain is rain with a lower than normal pH, caused by emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitric oxides (NO_x), typically from factories.

In 1989, the US  Congress passed the National Acidic Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) with a recent Report¹⁸ which shows the progress that has been made in reducing these acidic gases.

.

Figure 3.6.U S progress in acid gas reduction¹⁹.

WATER SHORTAGE

All organisms need water. Heat from the sun evaporates it, mainly from the oceans, and deposits it as rain, hail, snow, dew and  frost. Since most precipitation on land originated from the oceans, a steady bonus is supplied by the climate to the land. Some may fill or replenish natural aquifers. The surplus flows from rivers back to the sea.

Potable water is needed for drinking and cooking. Water is also needed for crops, cleaning, sewage disposal. Human settlements have always been chosen from local accessibility to water. Human expansion has needed measures to ensure reliability of supply. The Romans pioneered the construction of reservoirs pipelines drainage and aqueducts.

Today their example pervades the world, and there is the addition of the possibility of desalinating sea water, now practised by 25 different countries.

The availability of water is usually considered to be a human right that is available free, but supply costs money, which has to come from somewhere, to an extent that depends on location and time of year. All claims of water shortage can be met by the availability of finance, but this truth is somehow often ignored.

Many current problems arise from reluctance to maintain, modernize or expand pipelines, reservoirs or water treatment plants to meet increases in demand²⁰. Campaigns to conserve water or limit its use are easier to do than find or spend the money to increase services. Some recent floods in Britain were caused by neglect of drainage, recommended by environmentalists, supposedly to benefit endangered species.

THE OZONE HOLE

 Figure 3. 7  Ozone in the atmosphere^21` 

Ozone is a form of oxygen with three atoms to a molecule which has a higher concentration in the stratosphere through the action of the ultraviolet part sunlight. In this process it reduces the amount of ultraviolet light coming to the earth, particularly the high frequency region (UVB radiation (290-320nm)) as opposed to UVA radiation (320-400nm

Gordon Dobson at the University of Oxford in the 1920s built the first instrument to measure total ozone from the ground, now called the Dobson ozone spectrophotometer. It is measured in Dobson Units. The area of the ozone hole is determined from a map of total column ozone. It is calculated from the area on the Earth that is enclosed by a line with a constant value of 220 Dobson Units.

In 1984 a recurring Antarctic reduction of ozone was noticed in spring and summer which recovered as the polar vortex arrived in autumn. It was referred to as the Ozone Hole.

Rowland and Molina in 1974²²  had made experiments with ozone suggested that such an effect as the ozone holecould be caused by chlorinated hydrocarbons emitted in the atmosphere. It was also suggested that the effect would damage human health as it would increase human exposure to the higher frequency ultra violet radiation (UVB).

This suggestion was widely adopted and it led to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, agreed 16 September 1987 at the Headquarters of the International Civil Aviation Organization in Montreal. This protocol has subsequently endorsed by almost all nations.

The Montreal Protocol stipulates that the production and consumption of compounds that are claimed to deplete ozone in the stratosphere--chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),  halons, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform--are to be phased out by 2000 (2005 for methyl chloroform).

This action virtually eliminated a prosperous and useful industry with its applications such as refrigeration, dry cleaning, anaesthetics and spray cans and its  replacement largely with inflammable hydrocarbons.

Maduro and Schauerhammer²³ in1992  and Dixy Lee Ray²⁴  in 1993 published criticisms of this procedure. Used copies of both books can currently be purchased from Amazon.com for $0.01 so they are currently little noticed.

These books cast doubt on the decision to ban chlorinated hydrocarbons. They point out the lack of information about the stratosphere, its variability and chemistry, which has largely been studied with laboratory experiments. There are several other sources of chlorine. The ozone concentration may naturally vary.

Singer²⁵ has recently shown that their doubts still apply. In his review of recent literature he shows that the evidence is doubtful and the potential damage is unproven. It is even suggested that the supposedly damaging UVB radiation reacts with ozone in the troposphere so it may never arrive on the surface.

Ever since the Protocol was agreed in 1987 we have been told how the ozone hole is being eliminated as a result of this action. Yet this is untrue.

Figure 3.8 gives the latest figures from the NOAA²⁶for 2002-2013  It shows that the size of the hole fluctuates but shows no signs of disappearing.

Figure 3.8 The Southern Hemisphere 2003 - 2013²⁶.

Figure 3.9 Reduction of the ozone hole²⁷

Figure 3.9 is from the latest IPCC Report²⁷  which gives figures from 1970.

The ozone hole has not gone away and there is no evidence that anybody has suffered harm from its existence.

Further Environmental scams are given by Simon²⁸  

THE GLOBAL WARMING SCAM AND CLIMATE CHANGE SUPERSCAM

There is no question that the most successful scam ever perpetrated by the environmental movement is the claim that the climate is entirely controlled by human emissions of carbon dioxide and other minor trace gases. This Newsletter will eventually become part of my new book of the above title which is now in progress.

REFERENCES

 

1. Environmental False Alarms http://www.akdart.com/enviro6.html
2. Nuclear Winter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter
3. Carson R  1962 Silent Spring .(Houghton Miflin)
4. Discover the Networks http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/viewSubCategory.asp?id=1259
5. Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants http://www.pops.int/documents/ddt/Global%20status%20of%20DDT%20SSC%2020Oct08.pdf
6. Forrester Jay W. 1971  World Dynamics  Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge Mass. USA .
7. Meadows, Donella H, Meadows, Dennis L. Randers Jφrgen and Behrens III William W.  1972  Limits to Growth  , Universe Books, New York and, Earth Island, London
8. Cole H S D , Freeman, C, Jahoda M, and Pavitt, K E R  1973  Thinking About the Future: A Critique of The Limits to Growth. Chatto and Windus
9. Erlich Paul R 1971 The Population Bomb  Ballantine
10. Erlich Paul R, Ann H  Erlich,1990 The Population Explosion  Simon andSchuster.
11. Malthus T R 1798 An Essay on the Principle of Population  Oxford World Classics
12. Fertility rates in different countries¹ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate)
13. UN Population Fund. Population to 2300 http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
14. Simon Erlich Wager http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager
15. BP Statistical  Review of World Energy 2013 http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statisticalreview/statistical_review_of_word_energy_2013.pdf
16. Triple Pundit http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/06/fracking-boom-bust/
17. Financial Sense http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/gail-tverberg/why-high-oil-prices-are-now-affecting-europe-more-than-the-u-s
18. Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetically_modified_crops NAPAP
19.  http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/NAPAP/NAPAP_2011_Report_508_Compliant.pdf. Water Scarcity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity
20. The Ozone Hole http://www.theozonehole.com/
21. Molina M J  & . Rowland F S 1974 Stratospheric Sink for flurochloromethans Nature 249 810-812.
22. Maduro, R A and Schauerhammer . 1992 The Hole in the Ozone Scare 21^stCentury Science Associates
23. Ray, Dixy Lee and Guzzo, L , 1993 Environmental Overkill Regnerg
24. Gateway Washington DC USA
25. Singer F. 2010 Hasty Action Shaky Science http://heartland.org/policy-documents/ozone-cfc-debacle-hasty-action-shaky-scienc
26. NOAA Stratospheric Ozone http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/gif_files/ozone_hole_plot.png
27. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
28.  Simon, Julian L 1998 The Ullimate Resource2 Princeton University Press
29. http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=340&Itemid=108  el on Climate  Change http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource