Summary. Wind energy plays a small but growing role in the world’s energy economy. The European Union has the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emission by 80-95% by 2050. China United States
Introduction.
The burning of fossil fuels is recognized as being a major contributor to the increase in man-made greenhouse gases accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change and other organizations conclude that the increase in greenhouse gases leads to warming of the average global temperature, which is predicted to produce several adverse consequences impacting our life on the planet.
The world’s nations have gathered in conference to attempt unified responses to the threats posed by global warming. The most recent was the Cancun conference in November 2010. In response to the perceived problem, most nations have undertaken to slow the growth of atmospheric greenhouse gases, and even to achieve a leveling off of their concentration at a new, elevated, level. This involves ambitious programs to reduce burning fossil fuels, and to substitute alternative sources of energy in their place. One contribution to this endeavor is large scale development of wind power for generation of electricity. Aside from the energy required to manufacture the wind turbines used and the transmission lines that carry the resulting electricity, wind power is deemed to have no emissions of greenhouse gases when operating.
In this post development of wind power is described in Europe , China
Wind World-wide
According to the Global Wind Energy Council, world-wide wind generating capacity for electricity is predicted to grow to a total of about 450 gigawatts (billion watts, GW; see Note 1) within 5 years, and to about 1,000 GW in 10 years (reported by BTM Consult ApS). At present the world-wide generating capacity is almost 200 GW, which is 22.5% higher than in 2009.
The European Union (EU) has 27 member nations. The European Commission, its executive body, issued its Roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050 (see the post) on March 8, 2011 . The goal set forth in the Roadmap is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95% from the emission level of 1990, by 2050. The Roadmap builds on an earlier EU initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. Achieving these objectives requires concrete policy decisions to be implemented in each of the member nations. It envisions reductions in emissions of 1% per year until 2020, then 1.5% per year from 2020 to 2030, and finally 2% per year until 2050. These should provide about 25% reduction in emissions by 2020, about 40% by 2030, and about 60% reduction by 2040. This is shown in the following graphic.
Relative greenhouse gas emissions charted at 5 year intervals by economic sector. Actual results shown through 2010; projected results thereafter. The red line shows projected results using policies in place prior to the Roadmap. The remaining projections include technologies and policies to be implemented under the Roadmap. Source: European Commission, “A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” March 8, 2011 http://ec.europa.eu/clima/documentation/roadmap/docs/com_2011_112_en.pdf
The Roadmap envisions major reductions in emissions coming from the electric power sector, by developing renewable sources including wind power. Today all renewable sources for power generation in the European Union are already 45% of the total; the Roadmap envisions virtually 100% renewable power by 2050.
In the near term, the members of the EU have the goal of generating 21% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2010. As seen in the graphic below, slightly less than half of non-hydro renewable electricity generation in 2005 was from wind energy.
Historical renewable electricity energy provided by sector in Europe , 1990-2005, Twh/yr (billion Kwh).
Purple, cross striped (narrow band at top): Offshore wind.
Purple, vertical stripes: On-shore wind. Yellow: Solar photovoltaic cells.
Orange-brown cross striped: Geothermal electricity.
Gray cross striped: Biowaste. Green, dotted: Solid biomass. Pink: Biogas.
Source: European Commission, Renewable Energy Road Map, 2007 http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy_policy/doc/03_renewable_energy_roadmap_en.pdf
Although most wind energy in Europe is land-based, off-shore wind energy projects are also being developed, mostly in the North and Baltic Seas
From 2010 to 2015, overall electric generating capacity will increase from about 1000 GW to about 1400 GW (see Note 1). This increase includes a major and growing amount of generating capacity from coal, a very slight increase in hydroelectric generating capacity, and increases totaling about 1% of total capacity in 2010 to about 3% of total capacity in 2015, for renewable energy.
According to a cited report from the Chinese Wind Energy Association, China is adding wind-generated electric power to its energy mix at a rapidly expanding pace, even as the share that wind generation contributes remains quite small. At the present time, China China
Much of this new wind capacity is manufactured within the country. Sinovel Wind Group Co. is a specialized enterprise that manufactures on-shore, off-shore and intertidal wind generators. In 2010 it provided 4.4 GW of capacity, making it the largest wind manufacturer in China Spain Australia Canada U.S.A. Brazil
According to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2010, during the period 2008-2035 about 9% of newly added energy demand in China
The U. S. District of Columbia
As of 2009, the role of wind power in the generation of electricity (excluding transportation and building heating) is shown in the following graphic
Source: U. S.
It is seen that wind generation accounted for 1.7% of all electricity generation in the U. S.
According to the American Wind Energy Association, 35% of newly added generating capacity in the U. S. U. S.
Total wind energy generation (green line, left scale) and net summer generation capacity (blue bars, right scale) in the U. S. 1999-2009. Source: U. S.
It is seen that installed power generating capacity (blue) and total energy generated from wind (green; see Note 1) are increasing rapidly. Nevertheless, according to the U. S. Energy Information Agency (USEIA), wind generation constituted less than 1% of the total energy consumed in the U. S.
in the U.S.
A projection by USEIA of generating capacity that may be installed in the coming years is shown below.
Source: U. S.
Planned wind energy installations are shown in lavender. It is seen that as of the date of preparation, 2009, wind facilities decrease significantly after 2011. This may reflect the expiration of tax incentives explained below. From the point of view of combating the emission of greenhouse gases, projected new installations fueled by fossil fuels (coal, red; and natural gas, orange) are much larger and highly significant. Newly commissioned fossil fuel plants will continue in operation for several decades, making continued additions to the atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases each year.
The USEIA projects an increased role for renewable sources in the generation of electricity over the coming decades, increasing to 17% of overall electricity production by 2035 , up from 9% in 2008; wind power will be a major contributor to this growth. A strong impetus for use of renewable sources is to contribute to the decarbonization of our energy economy. This is viewed as a significant factor for minimizing the effects of global warming. In general, the capital costs for installing renewable sources, including wind, are evaluated as being more costly than fossil fuel-driven sources. Much of this cost comes from the fact that land areas in the U. S. that provide abundant sources of renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, are distant from the ultimate consumers, so that costly transmission lines must be built. But balancing this initial outlay, the cost of operating the facilities is much lower once built, since no fuels need to be purchased.
These effects may be overcome by continuing to offer favorable tax credits for installing new renewable energy facilities. The Federal Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit has contributed to an eight-fold increase in wind energy production in the years since 2001. The Federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 provides interest-free financing to government entities intended for wind energy. The USEIA projects that extending this credit beyond its expiry would have a significant favorable effect going forward. Additional factors guiding installation of new renewable generation facilities are the Renewable Portfolio Standards or goals that many states have put in place, as well as marketable certificates for renewable energy that may be traded among providers.
The U. S. Energy Information Agency’s Annual Energy Outlook 2011 issued April 2011 presents a comprehensive analysis of U. S. Energy production and consumption foreseen through 2035. Its Reference case is based on current policies and laws without assuming extension of provisions that expire at various points in time. Its No Sunset case builds on the Reference case by assuming extension of favorable tax and other fiscal policies during the period of the analysis. Its Extended Policies case includes the assumptions of the No Sunset case and adds to it the extension of current federal energy efficiency policies.
Electricity generation from all renewable sources projected for the Reference case beyond 2009.
Source: U. S. Energy Information Agency: Annual Energy Outlook 2011 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdf
In the years immediately preceding and following the cutoff year 2009 the most significant increase occurs with wind-derived electricity generation (blue). This sector then shows a sharp break at about 2012 and remains essentially constant thereafter. This stark behavior is due to the fact that under the Reference case favorable tax credits expire at that time, as discussed above.
The following graphic shows projections for the total amount of renewable electricity generated under the Reference, No Sunset, and Extended Policies cases. Beyond about
Total renewable electricity generation per year over 2005-2009 (historical data) and 2010-2035 (projection) under three cases. The kilowatt-hours generated are higher than in the preceding graphic, presumably because hydroelectric power is included here.
Source: U. S. Energy Information Agency: Annual Energy Outlook 2011 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).pdf
2023 the No Sunset case, which includes extensions of favorable tax credits, leads to a significant increase in generation compared to the Reference case. By 2035, considering electricity generation from all sources, the Reference case provides 14% whereas the No Sunset case provides 16%, displacing generation from fossil fuel-derived generation. (The Extended Policies case falls below the No Sunset case because, it is proposed, its increased efficiencies lower the demand for electricity so that less needs to be generated.)
On April 19, 2011 the U. S. Secretary of the Interior, Ken Salazar, approved construction of the first off-shore wind energy project in the U. S. The project, by Cape Wind Associates, is to be installed in Nantucket Sound off the south coast of Massachusetts, and envisions 130 turbines arrayed across 25 square miles in the shallow waters of the Sound, generating up to 420 MW (0.42 GW) of power. This should supply about 75% of the immediate region’s electricity needs. This project had previously gone through many years of environmental and permitting review at various levels of government.
Conclusion. The perceived dangers accompanying increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases provide an impetus for the nations of the world to work toward an emissions-free energy economy. The European Union , striving to attain 80-95% reductions by 2050, has significant wind energy installed, with plans to expand. China U. S.
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Note 1. A watt is a unit of power, quantifying the rate at which energy is provided or consumed. It is a small unit.
A kilowatt (1,000 watts, Kw) is a more manageable unit of power. 10 100-watt light bulbs represent 1 Kw; an electric toaster would be 1-2 Kw.
Generating capacity is the rate at which an installation provides power, such as in millions of watts (megawatts, MW) or billions of watts (gigawatts, GW); please note these are watts, not kilowatts.
Energy is a measure of total work done, given by power x time and for electricity is watt-hours. Again this is usually given in terms of kilowatt-hours, Kwh. 10 light bulbs burning for 1 hour would be 1 Kwh.
Note 2. According to the USEIA, in 2008 the average annual usage of electricity for a U. S. U. S.
© 2011 Henry Auer
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