More Lies From Tom Harris

Tom Harris has posted another of his lies, this time comparing the coal industry to someone falsely accused of a crime. You can read it here. I have submitted the following at a rebuttal to his false claims.

*****

This is in response to “Coal industry leaders betraying workers,” written by Tom Harris and Tim Ball and published August 29.

Misters Harris and Ball use a highly deceptive analogy in an attempt to make the coal industry appear as an innocent person unjustly accused of committing crimes. The truth is, coal is a very dirty industry. There is nothing innocent about the business and it knows it. A much better analogy would be to compare coal to the tobacco industry executives who testified before Congress that nicotine is not addictive, even though they knew otherwise (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_ZDQKq2F08).

Misters Harris and Ball state, “You would expect coal leaders to proclaim their industry’s innocence of the crime of which they stand accused, pointing out, for example, that:
–       Global warming stopped 18 years ago despite a 10% rise in CO2 levels,
–       Hurricane activity is at a record low,
–       Medium to strong tornadoes have become less frequent,
–       Antarctic sea ice cover has been increasing at about 1 to 2% per decade,

Let’s take a look at these claims. First, global warming has not stopped and the claim it stopped 18 years ago has been so completely debunked you immediately have to question the credibility of anyone making that false statement. This claim is based on the fact that you can find an average of any database. Fossil fuel industry supporters take that average and draw a straight line, claiming this shows there is no warming. What is interesting is this claim actually proves global warming is continuing. If you look at their claim over time, the only way you can explain their results is by concluding the planet is getting warmer. Read more about this lie at: http://dialoguesonglobalwarming.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-great-warming-pause-lie-revealed.html.

What about hurricane activity? It is true the United States is in a low-level period of hurricane activity. The lie is to characterize this as worldwide low. In fact, the western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean have seen an increase in tropical cyclone activity. Why didn’t Misters Harris and Ball mention that? This is what is known as ‘cherry picking’ and consists of using only the data that supports your claim and ignoring all else.

What about the tornadoes? It is true the number of tornadoes from 2012-2014 was very low. In fact, 2014 was one of the quietest years ever recorded. But, again, Misters Harris and Ball have cherry picked the data. The year 2004 tied the all-time record number of tornadoes. Likewise, the years 2008 and 2011 were significantly higher than the average. Why wasn’t this revealed?

And, let’s discuss the Antarctic sea ice. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the maximum sea ice extent (occurring in September) around Antarctica has been growing at 1.3% per decade. So, was the statement truthful? Of course, not. What they failed to mention is how the amount of land ice on Antarctica is decreasing at an alarming, and increasing, rates. They also failed to mention the sea ice extent this year is dramatically below the average, currently running at more than 10% lower than last year. All of this also ignores how land ice around the world and sea ice in the Arctic is disappearing. This is the lie of omission. They didn’t want you to know about this, so they left it out of the conversation and provided only what they wanted you to know.

And, there is another lie of omission in their letter. What they didn’t tell you is these two men are both supported by the fossil fuel industry. Mr. Harris, in particular, has a long track record as a fossil fuel lobbyists and is closely associated with the Heartland Institute which is supported by the fossil fuel and tobacco industries. Take a look here for more information on Mr. Harris:

http://scholarsandrogues.com/2015/02/16/tom-harris-hypocritical-peddler-of-deceitful-climate-change-editorials/

http://dialoguesonglobalwarming.blogspot.com/2015/07/tom-harris-paid-shill.html

Unfortunately for Misters Harris and Ball and their employers, the science about manmade climate change is settled. In fact, there is no scientific evidence to the contrary. There is no reproducible scientific evidence to provide any alternative explanation. Read about what happens when scientists attempt to reproduce contrarian claims (spoiler alert: they are unable to reproduce them). The only valid scientific conclusion is that manmade emissions are changing the climate.

In short, coal is the number one source of compounds sulfur and nitrogen pollution in the atmosphere; it is the number one source of mercury in the food chain (our food chain!); it is the number one source of manmade radioactive material in the air; it produces particulate pollution responsible for a number of respiratory and pulmonary health problems; it is the number one source of poisonous arsenic in the water system. And, oh yeah, it produces billions of tons of carbon dioxide leading to climate change.

Tom Harris and Tim Ball are paid by the fossil fuel industry to deceive the public on the facts. But, their lies do not change the facts: The crisis is real and we need to act.

Contrarian Papers Debunked

What if the contrarian scientists are right? What if that 3 percent of scientists claiming manmade climate change is real are correct and the 97% are wrong? A team of scientists decided to put this to the test via the scientific method. They took contrarian papers, assumed they were correct, and tried to replicate the results. I'm sure you can guess the results. You can find their paper here.

What I found most interesting is the reason they said most of the research failed - cherry picking. That's right, the most common false argument among deniers is used by denier scientists to falsify their research. Another cause? They simply ignored any laws of physics that didn't fit their hypothesis. Really. Is anyone surprised by that finding?

The researchers do throw a bone to the contrarian scientists, they say the errors may not be malicious. They concede it is possible the errors were honest mistakes by new scientists.

I love the conclusion:

“Science is never settled, and both the scientific consensus and alternative hypotheses should be subject to ongoing questioning, especially in the presence of new evidence and insights,” the study concluded.

This is the exact wording deniers use in an attempt to discredit real science. Karma is a bitch. 

More Scientists Comment On Tom Harris' Deceptions

Turns out I'm not the only one stepping up to comment on Tom Harris' silly editorial on global temperature. Take a look here. The facts are in - Harris continues to have zero credibility.

Clear Demonstration of Denier Logic Failure

One of the most common false arguments I hear about climate change is that it isn't real because the models don't work. This is not only a false argument, it is a false statement. I wrote a posting about it last year that is still valid.

But, there is more to the story. Models improve with time. Deniers want models to be perfect right away and, if they aren't, then the science is invalid and should be abandoned. But, what if that were applied to weather models? Then, the models we use for daily weather and things like hurricane forecasts would never improve. Take a look at the improvement made in hurricane forecast models:

Source: NOAA

Now, ask the deniers if they would rather not have improved hurricane forecast models. When they answer, ask them why the wouldn't want improved climate models?

I'm betting they won't be able to give you a logical answer.

Effort Underway to Block Tom Harris

Tom Harris is a paid shill of the fossil fuel industry and part of his job is to publish false claims in newspapers and blogs where ever he can. See more about him at these websites:

http://scholarsandrogues.com/2015/02/16/tom-harris-hypocritical-peddler-of-deceitful-climate-change-editorials/

http://www.desmogblog.com/tom-harris

http://dialoguesonglobalwarming.blogspot.com/2015/07/tom-harris-paid-shill.html

Now, an effort is being made to encourage newspapers to stop printing his lies. Here is an article about Tom Harris printed in the Daily Kos.

And, it turns out Millennials have little patience for people like Harris and his employers. Forty-one percent of them believe climate change denialism disqualifies the candidate. Maybe the papers need to pay attention and stop publishing pieces by Tom Harris. He has disqualified himself.

Tom Harris' Lies About The Temperature Record

Fossil fuel-supported deniers are selling the story that the temperature record is false and there is no global warming. This is particularly interesting considering the number of paid shills who keep insisting the warming is all natural, or the warming is good for us. How could warming be natural if there is none? How could warming be good for us if there is none? This is merely one simple, shining example of how the paid deniers are liars with the goal of deceiving people. Now, there is another, a editorial written by Tom Harris.

Tom Harris is a paid shill of the fossil fuel industry. He also has strong ties to the tobacco industry. These are both industries with track records of falsifying the scientific record in order to prevent any government or public actions that might be damaging to them. These links include a strong affiliation with the Heartland Institute, which receives considerable funding from the fossil fuel and tobacco industries. (Heartland, by the way, is a major player in the fight to convince people that second-hand smoke is harmless.) Mr. Harris denies his link to these industries, but the evidence is conclusive. Take a look at these postings on Mr. Harris and his affiliations.

http://scholarsandrogues.com/2015/02/16/tom-harris-hypocritical-peddler-of-deceitful-climate-change-editorials/

http://www.desmogblog.com/tom-harris

http://dialoguesonglobalwarming.blogspot.com/2015/07/tom-harris-paid-shill.html

Part of Mr. Harris’ job, possibly his entire job, is to put false claims in editorials and letters to the editor anywhere he can. In this way, he can promulgate any lie he wants without worrying about being held accountable. After all, he’s entitled to his opinion, even if it is a lie. Mr. Harris has a long record of making false statements. Take a look at his comments from 2006 on Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth documentary.

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/06/16/the-gods-are-laughing-at-tom-h/

A recent posting of his concerns the temperature record and is filled with falsehoods and false arguments. You can see his entire posting here:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/aug/23/tom-harris-global-warming-deceptive-temperature-re/

Let’s take a look and see exactly how he goes about lying.

Mr. Harris states, “But government spokespeople rarely mention the inconvenient fact that these records are being set by less than the uncertainty in the statistics.” The uncertainty, he claims, makes the data ‘meaningless.’ This, of course, is nonsense and is a clear demonstration of his intent to deceive. Let’s take a closer look.

The NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-1)  did an analysis of the temperature record for 2014. Taking into account the uncertainty and assuming all years (1880-2014) in the time series are independent, they found the chance of 2014 being

• Warmest year on record: 48.0%
• One of the five warmest years: 90.4%
• One of the 10 warmest years: 99.2%
• One of the 20 warmest years: 100.0%
• Warmer than the 20th century average: 100.0%
• Warmer than the 1981-2010 average: 100.0%

Wait! There is ‘only’ a 48% chance 2014 actually was the hottest year on record. That sounds like Tom Harris is right. And, there is the lie. It’s the lie of omission. If 2014 wasn’t the hottest, then some other year must be. Take a look at the rest of the data. The chance of 2014 being one of the top ten hottest years is 99.2% (virtually certain) and it is 100% likely it is in the top 20. It is also 100% certain 2014 was hotter than the 20^thcentury average of the 1981-2010 average. Every year of the 21^stcentury is in the top sixteen hottest years.

These are facts Tom Harris and other paid deniers fail to mention. The important point is not that 2014 (and soon, 2015) is the hottest year on record, what is important is that every single hottest year ever recorded has occurred since 1997, and they are consistently getting hotter. The data fluctuates from year to year, but the trend is what is important and is unmistakable. Take a look here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/the-most-popular-deceptive-climate-graph/comment-page-3/

Tell us, Mr. Harris, if July 2015 wasn’t the hottest month ever recorded, why didn’t you discuss the trend? But, it gets worse. Mr. Harris in no way demonstrated July 2015 was not the hottest month on record. In fact, he made a clear-cut argument it is bad and could be much worse than claimed. The reason for this is deniers always take the margin of error the way they want and it doesn’t work that way. Taking the data you want is known as ‘cherry picking’ and is one of the biggest and most common lies deniers use.

The margin of error is a plus-or-minus. When they say the data is ± .14 degrees, that means the range, with great probability, is between .14 degrees less and .14 degrees greater. So, in fact, if there is a chance the temperature was less, there is an equal chance it was greater. In other words, there is a reasonable chance July 2015 was even hotter than reported. The data is conclusive – the temperature trend is upward and the planet is getting hotter. This is true even if July 2015 isn’t the hottest month ever. Funny how Mr. Harris didn’t mention that. Was that because he doesn’t want you to know? I mean, he wouldn’t be doing his job if you end up thinking for yourself. By the way, the temperature rise over the 20^th century average is many times the size of the margin of error. Strange, Mr. Harris didn’t mention that either. Another lie of omission on his part.

He then tries to make his case by personal attacks on the climate scientists. “Such misrepresentations are now commonplace...,” and “Scientists within the agencies know that this is dishonest.” These are the kind of statements you can expect from paid shills and have no value in the discussion. First, these are not ‘misrepresentations’ and they are in no way ‘dishonest.’ The most proper way to report the data is to provide the most likely value along with the amount of uncertainty. Mr. Harris proved himself they actually do this by quoting the data. Please Mr. Harris, show us how reporting the data with appropriate uncertainties is in any way ‘dishonest’ or a ‘misrepresentation.’

His deception continues when he states, “After all, there is very little data for the 70 percent of Earth’s surface that is ocean. There is also little data for mountainous and desert regions, not to mention the Antarctic. Much of the coverage is so sparse that NASA is forced to make the ridiculous claim that regions are adequately covered if there is a temperature-sensing station within nearly 750 miles.”
Why is this a deception? Again, Mr. Harris is engaging in the lie of omission, one of his favorite tactics. What Mr. Harris doesn’t want you to know is that the entire planet is measured every day by satellite instruments. That data is in addition to the ground stations he mentions which provide ground-truthing. This satellite data allows us to obtain the temperature at various levels of the atmosphere as well as the land and ocean surface. His claims about the distance between data points is entirely false. Why didn’t he mention the satellite data?

Mr. Harris then writes a peculiar paragraph, beginning with “In their award winning book…” I can find no reference that says Taken By Storm has won any awards. In fact, the only reviews I found soundly blasted it. Take a look at this one example (there’s plenty more):

http://wellbeing.ihsp.mcgill.ca/library/takenByStormReview.html

Maybe they got an award from the Heartland Institute. That would be a true statement of its credibility (i.e., none). In any event, Mr. Harris goes on with a definition of temperature. Yeah. So, what? Temperature measures the amount of energy contained in something. I’m not sure what point he’s trying to make and I don’t think he does, either. That’s usually the case when deniers show and try to fool people into thinking they know something about science.

Then, he continues the lies, stating, “Even if enough accurate surface temperature measurements existed to ensure reasonable planetary coverage (it doesn’t).” We already covered this one. Yes, Mr. Harris, there are accurate enough records. But, he doesn’t stop there and continues with complaints about how the data processing methods aren’t known. First, the specific method isn’t as important as ensuring you use the same method on the entire data base. What we want to see is the trend over time. Again, Mr. Harris has committed the lie of omission. The truth is four agencies around the world and the Berkeley Earth Project all use different methodologies (and even different data bases), but come up with essentially the same results. Again, the lie of omission.

Mr. Harris then makes one of the most egregious statements I have ever seen him make and he has a record of whoppers. He states,

“Even if you could calculate some sort of meaningful global temperature statistic, the figure would be unimportant. No one and nothing would experience it directly since we all live in regions, not the globe. There is no super-sized being straddling the planet, feeling global averages in temperature. Global warming does not matter.” 

Wow! I had to read this several times to make sure I wasn’t misreading it. So, Mr. Harris, we don’t need to worry about all of those silly little things that happen on the other side of the planet because we don’t straddle the planet? Things like massive droughts, war, famine, ISIS, etc. I mean, no one is a ‘super-sized being straddling the planet.’ Of course, when those effects of global warming hit us directly we don’t need to worry about it because it’s just us and there is no ‘super-sized being straddling the planet.’ You know, effects such as mass extinctions, food shortages, hotter summers, more severe winter storms, more extreme weather, higher utility bills, loss of jobs, more flooding, coastal erosion due to sea level rise, and don’t forget the $44 trillion that climate change is expected to cost us.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/cost-of-not-acting-on-climate-change-44-trillion-citi.html

Also, notice how Mr. Harris went from saying there is no global warming to saying it doesn’t matter. Which is it? No global warming or it doesn’t matter? You can’t have both.

Once again, the lie of omission. And, this was a huge lie.

Mr. Harris then states, “Future generations are bound to ask why America closed its coal-fueled generating stations, its cheapest, most plentiful source of electric power, and wasted billions of dollars trying to stop insignificant changes in imaginary phenomena.”

No, Mr. Harris, future generations are going to wonder why we debated for so long before acting. They are going to wonder why we didn’t immediately close the fossil fuel plants when we learned their emissions were destroying the ozone layer, causing acid rain, providing the number one source of mercury in the food chain (our food chain), poisoning the air with cancer-causing radioactive debris, poisoning our bodies with particulate matter, and poisoning our water supply with arsenic. And, oh yeah, destroying the world’s environment by causing climate change. They will see we had cheaper, safer energy sources. They will see the science was settled and the world’s scientists were in nearly unanimous agreement on the dangers. Then, they will wonder why we allowed paid shills to lie and deceive without holding them accountable.

The sad part is I don’t know how to answer that. Maybe the time is coming when we will hold them accountable.

Drought and Extremes of Heat Reduce Farm Yields and Worsen Wildfires

[Updated September 16, 2015]       

Man-made global warming worsens the extreme drought in the American West because of its excessive heating.  Farms in California receive inadequate water supplies, leading to crop losses.  Wildfires are burning record areas of forest in the West as well as in Alaska.  In order to minimize future damaging effects such as these, Americans should join forces with other nations of the world to reduce use of fossil fuels so that greenhouse gas emissions are lowered.

The drought in California.   Barry Baker, an almond farmer in California’s Central Valley, couldn’t provide enough water for the 5,000 acres (about 2,000 hectares) of almond trees he grows, the Vancouver, WA Columbian reported in February 2014 http://www.columbian.com/news/2014/feb/23/drought-drives-california-almond-farmers-to-cut-or/.  So he tore up about one-fifth of his trees, an irreversible decision (see the image below), and had them reduced to wood chips to fuel a local power plant. 

Alan Thompson of G&F Agri Service oversees the removal of almond trees at Baker Farming Company in Firebaugh, CA, on Feb. 3, 2014. (Scott Smith/AP)

Source: The Columbian, Vancouver, WA http://www.columbian.com/news/2014/feb/23/drought-drives-california-almond-farmers-to-cut-or/  

 

The prolonged drought in California, now in its fourth year, has cut supplies of water used to be available to irrigate crops. In July 2015 the state ordered farmers to stop pumping the water.  A year earlier, farmers’ bids for water drawing rights were rumored to be as high as US$3,000 an acre-foot (a measure of water volume), instead of normal rates of about US$60. The wells on California’s farms have been pumping more water out of the region’s aquifer than is replenished by rainfall, so that the land of the Central Valley is actually sinking.  The resulting damage to the aquifer is permanent, reducing its capacity to hold water if and when rainfall returns.

 

Economic effects.  A 2015 study by the University of California, Davis of the economic effects of the drought on agriculture in California projects that a) lack of surface water for irrigation is only partly offset by pumping groundwater from deeper wells at higher cost; b) as many as 21,000 agriculture and related jobs will be lost; c) 542,000 acres (about 217,000 hectares) of agricultural land would lie fallow, more than 25% higher than in 2014; and d) US$2.7 billion of economic activity would be lost.  Thus the drought has serious negative consequences on the state’s economy.

 

Wildfires in the Western U.S.  In the U. S., forest and grassland wildfires have become significant problems in recent years.  So far in 2015, up to August 23, there have been almost 42,000 wildfires which have burned about 7,500,000 acres (about 2,800,000 hectares).  Over the last ten years, information for the year-to-this-date includes some years with higher numbers of fires, but none with a higher acreage burned.  The ten year average for the year-to-this-date was 5,350,800 acres (about 2,140,000 hectares) burned.

 

An example of the damage that wildfires cause is in the image below.

 

House threatened by wildfire in California, about Aug. 2, 2015.

Source: http://us-news.us/firefighter-dies-in-wind-fueled-northern-california-wildfire/

 

 

One firefighter, David Ruhl, 38, died in California on about Aug. 2, 2015 as he was caught in the blaze in the region shown in the photo above.  Three firefighters, Tom Zbyszewski, 20, Andrew Zajac, 26, and Richard Wheeler, 31, died battling a blaze in Washington state.

 

The map below shows the locations of most of the 70 large wildfires active on Aug. 23, 2015.

 

A portion of the U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service map showing large (greater than 100 acres (40 hectares)) wildfire incidents present on August 23, 2015.  70 locations are mapped; red, blue, and gray show level 1, level 2 and other incidents, respectively.  In addition to those shown, the total includes five other incidents in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and South Dakota (not shown in this map portion).  The web page stated that in addition there were 99 new fires on this date.

Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Active Fire Mapping Program; http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/ (accessed August 23, 2015).

 

 

The Forest Service states that on this date there were 72 uncontained large fires and 2 contained fires.  Their locations reflect the severe wildfire hazard presented by severe drought conditions in California and the inland regions of the Pacific Northwest.  The U.S. Drought Monitor showed that as of June 30, 2015 most of California, as well as portions of Nevada and Oregon, experienced extreme or exceptional drought, and other regions of Washington state, Oregon, Idaho and Montana experienced severe drought.  In general regions of drought correlate with incidence of wildfires.

 

Wildfires in Alaska.  More than a month earlier, the U. S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that Alaska has had more than 600 fires, burning millions of acres of forest, the worst on record.  More than 350 structures have been damaged or destroyed.  Alaska had extreme high temperatures in interior regions during spring 2015 with temperatures 30ºF (16.7ºC) higher than typical, and were drier than usual as well. 

 

Extreme heat in the West and Alaska. NOAA reports that extreme heat has been prevalent over California and much of the West for the last three years.  This has worsened the effects of drought conditions in the region, which have lasted as long as six years.  In addition to lack of rainfall, low snowpacks in the mountains have led to reduced streamflow in the region, worsening the dryness of the soil.  The high temperatures paired with moderate to exceptional dryness in the American West and Alaska readily set the stage for ignition and spreading of forest wildfires.

 

Expenses of wildfire management.  The total costs of fire management have risen dramatically, by 60% over the last ten years, to US$2.5 billion.  As of Aug. 20, 2015, direct firefighting expenses have reached US$830 million; in all of 2014 the cost was US$1.2 billion.  Because of funding constraints, the U. S. Forest Service has reduced the proportion of administrative personnel and redirected staffing into firefighting in the field.

 

The role of global warming.  When confronted with climate extremes such as those described here, we may wonder whether global warming plays any role.  Generally drought refers to low rainfall; excess heat from global warming worsens its effects.  A. P. Williams and coworkers conducted detailed analyses of climate-related variables for California from 1901 to 2014; (Geophys. Res. Let. 2015; DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064924).  They found the drought was record-breaking in 2014 and a near-record for the three years 2012-2014.  From rigorous statistical analysis the authors estimate that global warming was responsible for 8-27% of the observed excess drought conditions for 2012-2014, and for 5-18% for 2014 alone.  These findings indicate that although drought conditions may originate from various climatic factors operating cyclically over many years, its full extreme extent is worsened by global warming, producing the record conditions identified by the authors.

 

Robeson analyzed periods of drought in central and southern California as far back as 1200 years ago (Geophys. Res. Let. 2015; DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064593.  The drought experienced in 2014, viewed against the earlier droughts, had a probability of happening of once in 140-180 years.  The three-year drought period 2012-2014 was very severe, having a probability of 1 in 10,000.  The four-year drought over 2012-2015 was unprecedented in the 1200 years examined, and is so severe its probability is beyond estimation using the analysis in the report. 

 

The U. S. Environmental Protection Agency reports, in a post current as of July 15, 2015, that Alaska’s long-term average air temperature has increased 3.4ºF (1.9ºC) over the last 50 years, and that winter temperatures have increased by almost twice as much.  The rate of warming in Alaska is twice as fast as it is for the rest of the U. S.  These trends are due to global warming.  The higher temperatures, coupled with the drought in Alaska’s interior, provide the conditions suitable for starting and spreading forest wildfires.

 

Discussion

 

Images such as the photos shown here speak to us directly, as if we ourselves are experiencing the losses shown.  They are immediate and compelling.

 

California farms provide a significant fraction of the vegetable and fruit crops that Americans consume.  Yet in recent years California has experienced record combined heat-and-drought conditions, which have led to destruction of fruit (here, almond) trees, and to land deliberately being withdrawn from cultivation instead of producing crops.  This ultimately can affect us all by leading to scarcity and/or higher prices for the foods we consume.

 

The increasing extent of forest wildfires in U. S. destroys public and private forest lands, and increasingly threatens homes built in the backcountry.  Protecting those homes from fire is the highest priority of wildfire fighters, leading to loss of life and requiring more expenses paid from our taxes. 

[Update] Valerie Trouet and colleagues published a detailed analysis of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada mountains of eastern California online in Nature Climate Change in September 2015.   They focused on the annual mountain snowfall that on melting provides much of the water resources for the state, going back to 1500 C.E.  They found that the water originating as snowfall in the winter of 2015 was the least for the entire 515 year period examined.  The likelihood of such a low snowpack having occurred in the past is estimated at once in every 3,100 years, which points out the extreme nature of this year’s minimum.  In view of projected worsening of man-made warming in the Sierra Nevada, the authors fear “major future impacts” on the region’s water storage ability.

 

Man-made global warming is a significant factor contributing to the harms and damages exemplified in this post.  In order to minimize the effects of further warming, which will only make droughts, food shortages and forest wildfires worse, we Americans have to join with the people of all nations to reduce the use of fossil fuels so that the further accumulation of carbon dioxide is minimized.  Our policymakers are infused with the same humanity common to  all Americans, and with all inhabitants of our planet.  We must come together to implement meaningful measures to combat the warming of our home, the Earth.

 

© 2015 Henry Auer

Sea Ice

Why is it so hard to measure the sea ice extent? There's a number of factors. The Arctic Ocean is large, remote, and the weather is really nasty. All of that works against measuring the ice extent, even by satellite. But, take a look at this image and you can see another reason. Just how would you characterize the ice extent?

Source: NASA

This true-color image was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite off the coast of Greenland on July 16, 2015.

As you can see, although the ice is broken up it is still very dense in some area, but not so dense in others.  And, if a storm or high winds comes through, all of this can change very rapidly. This makes measuring the extent a difficult process.

By the way, the extent for this year has now been measured to be less than the minimum extent for every year prior to 2007 and still falling.

Good News About Coal

Coal is a complex topic. On one hand, it is one of the most ideal of energy sources. It comes out of the ground ready for use and even comes in a very handy form for shipping. Then, it has a high yield, lending itself to highly efficient power plants. Take a look here to see which states use coal the most.

But, on the other hand, digging it out of the ground is environmentally damaging. Burning coal is the number one source of sulfur and nitrogen compounds in the air, causing all sorts of chemical problems, including acid rain. It is the number one source of mercury in the environment, poisoning the food supply and leading to neurological diseases in people who eat it. It is the number one source of manmade radiation in the air, a known carcinogen. It is the number one source of particulate matter, leading to a whole host of respiratory and pulmonary issues. And, the waste product is highly poisonous and contains, among other things, lethal levels of arsenic - an element and does not degrade. Nuclear foes beat the drum that nuclear waste can be poisonous for thousands of years. Well, coal waste is poisonous for all time.

And, of course, there are the CO2 emissions driving global warming and climate change. A recent study showed the heat trapped by CO2 emissions is as much as 100,000 times greater than the heat generated from the actual burning.

Given the fact that there are plenty of alternative fuel sources today, the conclusion I easily reach is we need to get off coal all together. I believe we need to shut down all coal mines and close all coal burning power plants. And, I don't believe that is a radical statement. What would be radical is to suggest we should continue to poison the planet and ourselves, and destroy the environment at the expense of our own safety and well-being. That is the radical position.

But, is that simply a pipe-dream? There is a massive amount of money involved in the coal industry. It is very safe to assume the coal interests will not merely shutter the mines and go away. However, the market is indicating that it may not be their choice. It is being made for them. Regulations to clean-up coal's act and alternative energy forms may be doing the job.

Natural gas appears to have kept 160 coal-fired plants from being built in recent years. Coal plants representing roughly 7 percent of the nation's power generating capacity will be closed this year. I estimate wind power kept about $1 billion worth of coal in the ground last year alone in just Canada and the U.S. Solar power is generating as much as 50% more than previously estimated and that amount is growing daily.

It is becoming more difficult for coal to be profitable and the markets are paying attention. In 2011, shares of Peabody Energy, one of the largest coal producers in the country, were selling for $72. Today, they sell for under $2. Recently, Alpha Natural Resources filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, stating "The Board of Directors of Alpha Natural Resources authorized the filing of the Chapter 11 cases to enhance the company's future as it weathers a historically challenged coal market." Walter Energy, another coal mining company, filed for bankruptcy in July. Coal prices are down 70% from four years ago. The coal industry's market capitalization is down 80% since April 2011. Many countries are distancing themselves from coal and renewable energy is cheaper than coal in many places. 

European oil giants have petitioned international governments to set carbon-pricing standards in order to provide a stable environment. The idea is to essentially charge carbon producing companies a fee commensurate with the cost of the damage they do to the environment and the public. This would not be good for coal. The efficiency of coal rests on the fact that it is easy to mine and burn, but only when you pass the indirect costs on to others. If coal has to start paying for the damage it does it will be unable to compete economically. By the way, ExxonMobil and Chevron were not parties to that petition. Nor do Democrats from coal-producing states support the idea.

However, coal isn't dead. Interestingly, billionaire George Soros has recently invested millions of dollars in coal companies, including Peabody Energy. Soros has long been a critic of coal, so this move has generated plenty of speculation. Is he putting his money where his mouth is and planning on shutting down coal operations? Or, is he merely a money-grubbing SOB who sees a chance to make a profit at the world's expense? Soros is not one of my favorite people, despite his stance on climate change, so I'm expecting it is the latter.

Additionally, the International Energy Agency estimates coal demand will continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate, through 2019 and will peak out at 9 billion tons per year. The majority of that demand will be in China, despite its efforts to reign in coal burning, and undeveloped countries which will typically burn it in inefficient plants.

Coal defenders are quick to claim this will spell disaster for the world. Funny how they claim bad things for them is a disaster, but climate scientists predicting bad things are 'alarmists.' The fact is, it will not be a bad thing for the world economy. The energy industry has shifted before and the results were far from bad. In fact, coal accounted for about 80% of the world's energy production in 1900, but only about 20% today. The revolution has already occurred. Now, we need to finish it.

The trend is certainly there - coal is on the way out. We just need to make it happen faster.

100 Days to Paris

As of today (Saturday), there are 100 days to go before representatives from around the world get together in Paris for the latest round of climate change negotiations. Known as COP21, you would think there would be no news here. After all, the 21 in COP21 means this is the 21st time we've done this. But, I think things might be different this time. There is more of a public demand for action now than in the past and you can see it in the way the various nations are acting. But, most importantly, countries are announcing in advance the steps to which they are committing. Instead of showing up and negotiating, the cards will be on the table long before anyone heads to Paris. I am not as optimistic as John D. Sutter at CNN (read his excellent article here), but I am guardedly hopeful.

One thing I think will be different this time is I believe this transparency in advance of the conference will undermine the efforts of deniers to sabotage the conference. In the past, they have pulled some criminal stunts to blow up the efforts (Climate Gate) and did so successfully. You have to assume they are working as hard as the fossil fuel money can drive them to come up with something new. This time, with the base work being done over a long period of time well in advance of the conference, the deniers will be faced with a much more difficult task. Plus, I believe the efforts in the past have backfired on them. There are the cult followers who still insist ClimateGate exposed a conspiracy, but nearly everyone not wearing a tin hat understands the deniers really demonstrated their true nature.

In any event, the next three months will interesting.

Decision Time

I have made a decision. Two years from now I will pull a John Gault and leave the real world. I have some projects in the works and I hope to publish the results of some research before I leave. But, I have decided, come August 30, 2017, I will leave all academic pursuits. I will no longer teach or work on research and I will discontinue this blog. After that time, I plan on devoting myself to other things, principally my fiction writing. Mostly, I will devote myself to enjoying myself and letting the rest of the world do it's business without me.

Until then, I will be here. But, the clock is ticking.

War On Science

I was reading a blog post by meteorologist Dan Satterfield about the forecasts made concerning Superstorm Sandy in 2012. At the time, the European forecast model (ECMWF) had Sandy hitting New Jersey while the American model (GFS) had it going out to sea. As we all know, the Europeans were right.

Turns out, there is more to the story than just two different forecasting models. The real problem is that the Americans did not have current computers. The European computers were faster and were able to make more detailed forecasts. It turns out, when the GFS is given the same detailed information the ECMWF had it produces similar results.

This means the problem wasn't the model. The problem was the funding. Given proper funding, the American's would have had the ability to make an accurate forecast in advance the same way the Europeans did. You now have to wonder how much damage and how many deaths were caused because of the disconnect between the two. If both ECMWF and GFS had provided a forecast showing Sandy striking New Jersey what would have been done differently?

Satterfield, states it well,

The anti-science posture of many of our so-called political leaders is actually having an impact on many aspects of how science is done in this country. The effects are widespread, and run from NASA, to weather prediction, to a serious deficiency in weather satellites. While NOAA now has new computers going online, we’re going to have a tough time catching up, because Europe,China and Japan are not sitting still. More so, they aren’t sitting around arguing over stickers in Biology books saying that natural selection is just a theory, or fighting over teaching accurate climate science to high school students. The result is that they have better weather models, faster computers and much more sophisticated weather satellites that can feed data into those models.

Record Heat Continues Through July

Sounding like a broken record, the NCDC released their Global Analysis for July this morning. I have to wonder if there is anyone on the entire planet who would be surprised to hear July was the hottest July ever recorded. The previous record was set in 1998 (the record El Nino period). Last month broke that record by .08 degrees C (.14 F) and that is a significant amount. This past July was .81 degrees C (1.46 F) hotter than the 20th century average. This was the hottest month ever recorded - any month, not just July. That is 1627 months since the records began.

July is the fifth month to break it's monthly record this year. The other four are February, March, May, and June. April was originally classified as the fourth hottest April but is now listed as the third hottest. February was previously listed as the second hottest, but is now listed as the hottest February ever.

So far, 2015 has five hottest months, one second hottest months, and one third hottest month ever recorded, not to mention the hottest of all 1627 measured months. January through July 2015 is the hottest such period ever recorded.

For the last 12 months, the tally is:

July 2015 was the hottest July (and hottest any month) ever recorded;

June 2015 was the hottest June ever recorded;

May 2015 was the hottest May ever recorded;

April 2015 was tied for the third hottest April ever recorded;

March 2015 was the hottest March ever recorded;

February 2015 was the hottest February ever recorded;

January 2015 was the second hottest January ever recorded;

December 2014 was the hottest December ever recorded;

November 2014 was the 7th hottest November ever recorded;

October 2014 was the hottest October ever recorded;

September 2014 was the hottest September ever recorded;

August 2014 was the hottest August ever recorded;

Adding up the score for the last 12 months gives us: one 7th hottest month, one 3rd hottest month, one second hottest month, and nine hottest months ever.

But don't worry. The deniers are still telling us there hasn't been any warming for ### (insert the number of your choice - they do) years.

Guest Submission: CO2 Doesn't Heat The Atmosphere

Below is a comment submitted in regards to the Global Warming Skeptic Challenge. The challenge ended July 31, 2014 (a year ago), so this is not a submission. In fact, it really wasn't even new in that this claim has been made. However, this person's comment had sufficient valid science in it that I felt compelled to address it in detail. It is still invalid (and I will show why below), but there is some valid science in it.

Guest Submission

FreedomClause

I'm not sure what challenge this would fall under, but, i'll give it a go....let's start with the basics; there is no mechanism by which the IR EM radiation absorbed and then re-emitted by co2 can be absorbed and changed into kinetic heat energy that warms the atmosphere. The theory of global warming as I understand it is dependant on the assumption that the IR EM radiation re-emitted by co2 adds additional heating to the atmosphere, so I should be able to knock the whole theory down with the above assertion...... The atmosphere is made of several different gasses, and each has its own electromagnetic (EM)absorption spectrum. The co2 absorption spectrum does not overlap with any of the major gasses that make up the atmosphere. Nitrogen gas (N2) has its own absorption spectrum, as does oxygen (O2), and all three gasses will absorb EM at different frequencies from one another. In other words, the frequency band of EM that can be absorbed by each of the different gasses is unique. If the atmosphere is irradiated with EM at a frequency within the absorption spectrum of say N2, it will not affect co2 or O2, and the N2 will absorb the EM. N2 reacts to absorption of EM energy by vibrating, thus changing EM energy into kinetic energy. It then collides with other molecules in the atmosphere dispersing the kinetic energy into the atmosphere through convection. This KE is measured as heat energy by thermometers. If co2 is irradiated by EM that is at a frequency within the co2 absorption bandwidth, the co2 will absorb some of the EM. but, co2, even though it is a symmetrical molecule will temporarily form a polar molecule. A dipole moment. when it returns to its symmetrical state, it re-emits EM at the same frequency it absorbed. co2 does not convert the EM into KE, so there is no heating effect. Since the EM re-emitted by the co2 must be at the resonant frequency of co2 and thus within the absorption spectrum of co2, it cannot be absorbed by the other gasses in the atmosphere. so, the IR that is emitted by the earth and absorbed by co2 in the atmosphere will cause no heating effect in the co2, and the IR that is re-emitted by the co2 back into the atmosphere will not be absorbed by the other gasses in the atmosphere, and again there will be no heating effect due to any of the IR within the co2 absorption spectrum. no heating effect means no atmospheric global warming caused by co2. The theory is sunk...I think the thing that caught climate scientists off guard was relying on the simple experiment where co2 is put in a jar with a thermometer, and another jar with just air and a thermometer, and both are exposed to the same IR source. The jar with co2 gets warmer than the air only jar.... the problem with that experiment is that glass shares a bsorption spectra with co2. so the IR emissions from the co2 will heat the thermometer directly through radiant heating, and show additional heating compared with the air only jar. The gasses inside the jar did not get warmer due to co2 changing the IR into KE, or because they absorbed any of the IR emitted by the co2, but the thermometer did get warmer because of the increased amount of IR within the absorption spectrum of the glass. the jar and the thermometer were incorrectly assumed to be isolated from the interactions within, but they were not... they were actively changing the results of the test, giving a false positive... ok, so that's my country bumpkin attempt, did I even come close? lol, I don't even check the e-mail on this account, so i'll probably never find out :)

Response

FreedomClause is correct on several points. But, he is incorrect on others and, most importantly, he is incomplete.

What he says about absorption is correct. When sunlight enters the atmosphere it is eventually either reflected back to space or absorbed by something. Once it is absorbed, it is reradiated back out as IR light. Infrared radiation falls under the classification of 'long wave' electromagnetic radiation (Note: 'electromagnetic radiation' is the precise term for light, including the visible light we see with our eyes, but also including things such as gamma rays, x-rays, uv, IR, and radio). These long waves are too big to be absorbed by O2 and N2 molecules, so they pass right by them. If our atmosphere was nothing but nitrogen and oxygen then we would be like the Moon - blazing hot in the daylight and freezing cold at night. This is because there would be nothing to retain the heat and it would all go straight back out into space. But, we do have other gases in our atmosphere and these gases can absorb IR. These are the gases we refer to as 'greenhouse gases.' The term is a misnomer, but we're stuck with it.

The two principle gases we have in our atmosphere that act this way are CO2 and water vapor. Water vapor is much more efficient than CO2 at absorbing IR than CO2, but it is temperature dependent. Cold air loses its water vapor. That means something must work to warm the atmosphere independently of the amount of water vapor. CO2 fits the job very nicely. It would take a very cold atmosphere in order to lose the CO2 so we have the greenhouse effect present even when the temperature drops.

A good demonstration of the efficiency of these gases can be seen in a dry desert. The temperatures may get very high during the day (depending on the desert - not all deserts are hot), and then experience a very large drop in temperature at night. This is because the air is dry and the heat is not being retained as well.

So far, Mr. FreedomClause is correct. He is also correct when he states gases that absorb IR radiation then reemit it at the same frequency. So, once again, O2 and N2 don't have a chance to absorb any of that heat.

But, we know there is a way to heat the atmosphere because we know it doesn't drop to sub-zero temperatures every time the Sun sets. Somehow, the atmosphere is retaining heat at night and we all know this for a fact. It gets cooler at night, but it doesn't drop 270 degrees C (500 F) as it does on the Moon when the Sun sets. But, if O2 and N2 don't absorb IR, what is that method?

It is actually pretty simple - collisions. Mr. FreedomClause is incorrect when he says CO2 does not convert the IR energy into kinetic energy. In the dense part of the atmosphere where we live, molecules in the air collide with great frequency - typically between 1 and 10 billion times per second. This comes out to an average of about .13 nanoseconds between collisions (a nanosecond is one-billionth of a second). At these high rates, the molecule frequently doesn't have time to reemit the energy as IR and will instead lose the energy to the other molecule via collision. Since the vast majority of molecules in the air (about 99%) are N2 and O2, it is highly likely a molecule of CO2 excited by the absorption of a photon of IR energy will transfer that energy to a molecule of O2 or N2 before it gets a chance to reemit it (many will still have time to reemit before they collide - thank goodness or else we would all have incinerated long ago). This is the process in which IR energy heats up the atmosphere.

A couple of final notes. Remember, when CO2 reemits the photon of energy, half will go generally upward, but half will go generally downward. Meaning, basically half of the reemitted IR radiation is sent back to the surface where it originated and the surface (water, ground, or ice) is very efficient at absorbing IR.

Also, he discusses an experiment consisting of two bottles with thermometers in them. One bottle has a CO2 atmosphere and one has an N2/O2 atmosphere. He critiques that it is the glass bottles that affect the experiment, not the difference in the atmosphere. I would debate that point, but I don't need to. I developed a lab experiment years ago that I used in my astronomy labs. This experiment was pretty similar to what Mr. FreedomClause describes except I used 2-liter, plastic soda bottles. The plastic does not absorb IR well, so this complaint is invalid. The result of having hundreds of students repeat this experiment showed the CO2 bottles consistently warmed up much faster than the N2/O2 bottles.

So, while this was a well-thought out submission, the conclusion is wrong. The fatal flaw is the omission of collisions of greenhouse gas molecules with other molecules once they have absorbed IR radiation. Once that factor is included it is easy to see how the atmosphere is heated.

One final note: None of this is controversial and nowhere did I make reference to manmade greenhouse gases. Everything here is equally valid for the naturally occurring greenhouse effect which makes our planet habitable. But, what happens when you increase the amount of greenhouse gases?

Why Do Republicans Hate Science?

You might think the title of this posting is severe, but I don't. Take a look at the record of things Republicans have fought for over the last 50 years:

They fought against the science linking tobacco to lung disease and did so even after they already knew the science was conclusive;

They fought to push the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), commonly known as Star War, even though the scientists said it was not feasible. Just one fact was enough to invalidate the entire idea - it is a lot cheaper to make dummy warheads than to defend against them. The Soviet Union merely had to make massive amounts of dummy warheads to overwhelm any system we devised. This was just one of many scientific criticisms of the plan. The politicians were aware of this, but the Republicans pursued SDI anyway;

They fought against the science of acid rain. The science was conclusive that sulfur emissions were causing acid rain, which was devastating the environment and caused numerous health issues. And yet, the Republicans did, and still do, deny that science and claim it is okay to overwhelm the atmosphere with sulfur emissions;

They fought against legislation addressing the ozone hole and denied the dangers it presented to the environment and the public;

They fought, and continue to fight, the science showing the dangers of second-hand smoke. The science is conclusive, but let's ignore that. Try to imagine a world where inhaling cigarette smoke directly is very harmful, but inhaling it second-hand isn't. You have to really reject science to buy into that line of reasoning;

They are now engaging in a campaign to denigrate Rachel Carson and are labeling her as a mass murderer for her efforts to bring the dangers of DDT to light. Their line of reasoning is a U.S. ban prohibited other countries from using DDT and this led to an explosion of malaria. This is a double false argument and extremely deceptive. No ban in the U.S. affects any other country and American chemical manufacturers are free to manufacture and sell DDT to other countries. In fact, they have. DDT use continued worldwide long after the American ban. The problem is mosquitoes rapidly develop resistance to it. An examination of the cases cited by the Republicans and their supporters shows DDT spraying not only continued in areas that experienced increases in malaria, the amount of spraying and the concentration of the solution both increased. The problem was not a lack of DDT. The problem was too much DDT. Why don't the people criticizing Rachel Carson tell the whole truth?;

Virtually every public supporter of creationism is a Republican. The people who fight to include this pseudoscience in our schools and try to water down the proven science of evolution are hurting our children by undermining our education system. When I had students working for me I would automatically reject the application of anyone subscribing to creationism. My reasoning was that if they rejected science once, they could be counted on to do it again. My experience has been they do;

And, of course, the Republicans are leading the charge on undermining the proven science of global warming a climate change. They seem to think they are being clever with the line, "I'm not a scientist, but..." then proceed to show how they have total disdain for the entire scientific community. They don't care what the science says. If it goes counter to their beliefs, then it is bad and needs to be rejected;

The COMPETE Act that passed the House but failed in the Senate, which eviscerated funding for geosciences and climate science, passed on a wholly Republican vote;

Republican donors hide their funding of anti-science lobbyists by using third-party entities, such as Donors Trust and Donors Capital Fund. If they thought what they stood for was so right, why are they working so hard to hide and deny their funding?;

Now, take a look at the stand the presidential candidates take on climate change. Every Democrat agrees manmade emissions are causing climate change. Only a few Republicans agree and those that do hedge their stance with comments about how we can't hurt the economy. Where does destroying the environment, causing millions of deaths and causing economic hardships help the economy? Oh, that's right! I forgot! It helps the billionaires providing the fossil fuels and, surprise!, funding the Republicans. What a coincidence.

This is quite a list. Unfortunately, I could go on, but I think I made my point. Republicans, for whatever reason, hate science. You can debate the pros and cons of this. You can argue the whys and wherefores. But, the bottom line is this: Republicans hate science.

Now, why is that and what are you going to do about it?

Disclaimer: I am not a Democrat and am not a liberal. In fact, I have voted Republican many times in the past (as well as Democrat and Independent) and may do so in the future. But, I will vote Republican in the future only if they start accepting science instead of rejecting it.